Why a single return number isn't enough
Most retirement calculators, including our own retirement calculator, assume your money earns the same return every single year. That's useful for a first estimate, but it hides the biggest risk in retirement: the order in which returns arrive. If markets fall sharply in the first few years after you stop working, you're forced to sell investments at low prices to pay for living costs, and that money never gets the chance to recover. Two retirees with exactly the same average return can end up in completely different places.
This simulator deals with that by running your plan through 1,000 different random market histories. In each one, equity returns jump around their average by the amount you choose under Market swings, debt returns wobble a little, and your spending rises with inflation every year. The headline shows how many of those 1,000 lives end with money still in the bank.
Reading your result
- 90% or more: the plan survives most bad decades. You may even be able to spend a little more.
- 75–90%: reasonable, but keep a buffer, such as a year or two of spending in a liquid fund, so you don't sell equity in a crash.
- Below 75%: the plan relies on good luck. Small changes help a lot: spend 10% less in the first five years, retire a year later, or rebalance toward a mix with enough growth.
The 4% rule doesn't travel well to India
The famous "4% rule" came from US data, where inflation has averaged around 3%. Indian inflation has historically been higher, so your withdrawals grow faster, and the safe starting rate is usually lower, often closer to 3–3.5% for a 30-year retirement. Try the example with 4% and then 3% to see the difference for yourself.
Too safe can be risky too
Holding everything in FDs feels safe, but with 6% inflation and 7% returns before tax, a portfolio barely grows in real terms. Move the equity slider from 0% to 30–40% and you'll often see the success rate go up, because some growth is needed to keep pace with rising expenses over three decades.
What the model leaves out
Returns are drawn from a bell curve each year independently, with the averages and swings you set, and rebalanced annually. Real markets have fatter tails and runs of good and bad years; taxes, fund fees and one-off expenses such as medical costs aren't included. Treat the result as a guide to how sensitive your plan is, not a precise forecast. The random numbers use a fixed seed, so the same inputs always give the same answer and you can share your result.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good success rate for a retirement plan?
Many planners aim for 85–90% in a simulation like this. Aiming for 100% usually means working years longer than you need to; a flexible plan that can cut spending in a bad year is a better safety net.
What withdrawal rate is safe in India?
With Indian inflation, around 3–3.5% of the corpus in the first year, rising with inflation, has historically been much more robust over 30 years than 4%. Your mix of equity and debt matters too.
Why does the answer change when I move the equity slider?
More equity means more growth on average but bigger swings. Up to a point, the extra growth protects against inflation; beyond it, the swings dominate. The best mix depends on how long the money must last.